Preliminary Election Results – Our Predictions Are 83 Percent Accurate So Far

By Robert Haugh

We made predictions yesterday. We are shooting 83 percent. Not quite as good as Steph Curry shoots free throws. But pretty good.

Results are preliminary as of press time. Here are early results with 59 percent of the vote counted:

  • Measure A – The Mission City ballot measure to create two council districts and implement ranked choice voting as soon as technology is ready is losing 52-48. . We predicted a win. This looks like our only miss. Santa Clarans don’t want to change the current system. They like how things are being done in the Mission City. It’s understandable since things are going well at City Hall.
  • In the County Supervisor District 4 primary, Susan Ellenberg surged to a large margin ahead of Pierluigi Oliverio, Don Rocha and Jason Baker. The real battle is between Oliverio and Rocha for who will compete against Ellenberg in November. Oliverio has a less than 1 percent lead over Rocha. Disgraced former Santa Clara Councilman Dominic Caserta slipped to fifth place, failing to get a double digit percentage of the vote and barely ahead of two late-entry candidates. We think we’ll end up predicting this one right, but disappointingly guessed wrong about Bucky the Bronco getting write-in votes.
  • Judge Aaron Persky will be recalled by a close to 60-40 margin. We called this one correctly.
  • Santa Clara County Sheriff Laurie Smith will be forced into a runoff against former Undersheriff John Hirokawa. We predicted this one.

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7 comments

  1. The 2012 Charter Review committee recommended a “at large” voting method to replace the “by seat” method and I preferred that. I wasn’t going to vote for Measure A which did not seem to solve the diversity issues and could also usher in the ranked voting method – look how well ranked voting did for Oakland several years ago. I don’t like the “by seat” method, but Measure A was no cure.

  2. I feel the way to fix the City Council race is to abolish the specified seats. When we hold an election for council, the entire city votes for say three candidates for three seats from a common pool. Measure A was just a reworded work around for the current system which helps protect incumbents.

    • That too, would require a City charter change. Measure A actually would have dramatically changed the Council, as it would guarantee representation from the Northside. Voters obviously aren’t ready for a drastic change and are happy with the “as-is” election method. Keep in mind, voters overwhelmingly approved maximum term limits two years ago – which should help establish fresh faces on the Council.

  3. Of all the ways to spin the Measure A loss, I would have never thought of that. … they voted against us because they like us so well.

    • Mike, from all indications, from what’s been disclosed by surveys by City staff, and my research, it seems that Santa Clarans are happy as can be with how we elect a Council now. Residents overwhelmingly approved maximum term limits, and appear to support the “as-is” that we have with numbered seats right now. I’ll be writing more about this in coming days. It’s important to more than in informal polling around town, residents simply are happy as-is and don’t want dramatic change. More to follow.

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